Jan Levine: Semin - A Look Behind the Numbers, Should the Rangers Make an Offer? Is Semin a good fit for the Rangers?

Id love to see Torts get a hold of AS, whip him into shape.

Jan Levine: Semin - A Look Behind the Numbers, Should the Rangers Make an Offer?
Is Semin a good fit for the Rangers?
- airjan23

The fact this guy is un-signed to this point in July is a joke. He is an unreal talent and certainly worth a flyer for a contending team. 2 years ago people would have been jumping to add him - even with the questionable work ethic, enigmatic performances, etc. You know what you're getting - just ask him to play 2nd line and score goals and make plays offensivley. Nothing more, nothing less.

There have been any number of suitable offers Howson has received for Nash. It has nothing to do with talent or prospects etc. The issue here is Howson has made this process a personal one, and so far Nash has been a good soldier. That's all about to change. As Howson drags this on into possibly August, the Nash camp will begin to become more and more vocal, ending with the spector of Nash sitting out the season.
- OLDSCHOOL#6

If this is true, then Columbus' ownership is even dumber than Howson is. You have a player who doesn't want to play for you, you move him. If Howson is truly trying to make this personal then the owners need to recognize this and remove Howson from the process. They have to realize that the only ones who are suffering from all of this is the Columbus franchise.

On Semin, I'd be willing (reluctantly) to offer him a one or two year deal, but realistically what are the chances of that happening? I'm sure he's looking for a much longer deal. Especially considering the new CBA could seriously alter his payday.

CLB- GM Snubbed the Rangers...wanting Boatload from NYR for NASH....ouch...

Give him a 2 year contract him and gabby will Come off books the same year

He will not sign in the NHL for anything less then 6.5. The regressive trend is extremely easy to explain - were ovie's numbers increasing over the past 2 years or did a hard system switch 2 years ago help them do the opposite?

If this is true, then Columbus' ownership is even dumber than Howson is. You have a player who doesn't want to play for you, you move him. If Howson is truly trying to make this personal then the owners need to recognize this and remove Howson from the process. They have to realize that the only ones who are suffering from all of this is the Columbus franchise.

On Semin, I'd be willing (reluctantly) to offer him a one or two year deal, but realistically what are the chances of that happening? I'm sure he's looking for a much longer deal. Especially considering the new CBA could seriously alter his payday.
- TheMessiah94

I think Howson is playing this pretty cool. Sort of following the Phoenix model with Turris. It serves everybody better to get a deal done sooner rather than later, except for Columbus. Not until it became apparent that Phoenix would not break did the offers for Turris escalate. Big pressure for the Rangers to include Krieder or McDonaugh in the deal. My guess is that Sather caves. If not, Nash will cave and expand his list.

I think Howson is playing this pretty cool. Sort of following the Phoenix model with Turris. It serves everybody better to get a deal done sooner rather than later, except for Columbus. Not until it became apparent that Phoenix would not break did the offers for Turris escalate. Big pressure for the Rangers to include Krieder or McDonaugh in the deal. My guess is that Sather caves. If not, Nash will cave and expand his list.
- spatso

there's no way sather caves to the point of putting Kreider or McD in the deal. Kreider for Nash would be retarded because it's trading a top 6 winger for a top 6 winger which doesn't add any offense and i'm not even gonna explain why McD would never ever be included in this trade because it should be obvious.

i can see sather caving to the point of adding MDZ or Stepan or Hagelin though.

there's no way sather caves to the point of putting Kreider or McD in the deal. Kreider for Nash would be retarded because it's trading a top 6 winger for a top 6 winger which doesn't add any offense and i'm not even gonna explain why McD would never ever be included in this trade because it should be obvious.

i can see sather caving to the point of adding MDZ or Stepan or Hagelin though.
- rangerdanger94

I dont know about Stepan, but MDZ or Hagelin I could see happening.

Make him a one year offer, so he can put up or shut up. Then he can show he's worth a multi year big money deal.

I think Howson is playing this pretty cool. Sort of following the Phoenix model with Turris. It serves everybody better to get a deal done sooner rather than later, except for Columbus. Not until it became apparent that Phoenix would not break did the offers for Turris escalate. Big pressure for the Rangers to include Krieder or McDonaugh in the deal. My guess is that Sather caves. If not, Nash will cave and expand his list.
- spatso

He will not sign in the NHL for anything less then 6.5. The regressive trend is extremely easy to explain - were ovie's numbers increasing over the past 2 years or did a hard system switch 2 years ago help them do the opposite?
- blondinwrx

That's a good point. Ovie's ES scoring decreased 45.2% from 2009-2010 to last year which is nearly twice as much as Semin. If we consider 2009-2010 as an outlier since the Caps scored nearly 4 goals a game and look at the changes from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012 we see Ovie's ES scoring rate drop 27% while Semin's remains relatively static (actually increasing from 2.32 pts/60 to 2.35 pts/60).

There are a lot of factors that have to be considered when analyzing stats. I simply did a rough look at Semin's advanced metrics and scoring rates and noticed the decrease. Even though his isn't as bad as Ovie's, it still isn't reassuring to see his scoring rates drop while facing weaker competition.

At the end of the day, if all other potential solutions are off the table I see no reason not to take a gamble on Semin. I'd be willing to take that chance short-term.

there's no way sather caves to the point of putting Kreider or McD in the deal. Kreider for Nash would be retarded because it's trading a top 6 winger for a top 6 winger which doesn't add any offense and i'm not even gonna explain why McD would never ever be included in this trade because it should be obvious.

i can see sather caving to the point of adding MDZ or Stepan or Hagelin though.
- rangerdanger94

I don't see Hagelin involved in this or any trade. The kid had had a great rookie season with 14 goals and 24 assists in only 64 games. He is an outstanding defensive player at a plus 21 and excellent penalty killer. He also happens to be the fastest guy in the league, something that translates into many forced and unforced errors by the opposition and many chances by his linemates.

I don't know whether or not I would say Hagelin is an untouchable....but IMHO he is very close to that category. With Kreider and him in the lineup it will cause other teams fits trying to match their speed.

I think Howson is playing this pretty cool. Sort of following the Phoenix model with Turris. It serves everybody better to get a deal done sooner rather than later, except for Columbus. Not until it became apparent that Phoenix would not break did the offers for Turris escalate. Big pressure for the Rangers to include Krieder or McDonaugh in the deal. My guess is that Sather caves. If not, Nash will cave and expand his list.
- spatso

Sather isnt going to cave and include Kreider or McDonagh.

Kreider and McDonagh are the future faces of the franchise. They will sign Semin to a 2 yrs / 14 mil deal before they trade them.

Make him a one year offer, so he can put up or shut up. Then he can show he's worth a multi year big money deal.
- david22

It would behoove Semin to sign a big contract now before the next CBA goes into effect. Front-loading contracts the way they are done now will probably be prohibited. The same holds true for Weber to sign an extension this summer.

I don't see Hagelin involved in this or any trade. The kid had had a great rookie season with 14 goals and 24 assists in only 64 games. He is an outstanding defensive player at a plus 21 and excellent penalty killer. He also happens to be the fastest guy in the league, something that translates into many forced and unforced errors by the opposition and many chances by his linemates.

I don't know whether or not I would say Hagelin is an untouchable....but IMHO he is very close to that category. With Kreider and him in the lineup it will cause other teams fits trying to match their speed.
- Downeaster

Sorry but if Hagelin is the deal breaker for Nash, Ill take a guy who can score 40 goals than a guy who is really fast.

It would behoove Semin to sign a big contract now before the next CBA goes into effect. Front-loading contracts the way they are done now will probably be prohibited. The same holds true for Weber to sign an extension this summer.
- TheMessiah94

The lack of offers semins received so far may mean he may have to take what he can get.

EDIT: nless he wants to flee to the KHL, in which case good riddance

The lack of offers semins received so far may mean he may have to take what he can get.

EDIT: nless he wants to flee to the KHL, in which case good riddance
- david22

I generally agree with you, but think there is some crazy GM who will offer a long, expensive contract. Just hope it's not ours.

The lack of offers semins received so far may mean he may have to take what he can get.

EDIT: nless he wants to flee to the KHL, in which case good riddance
- david22

Nope, hes playing it right... Hes waiting for the Nash/Ryan thing to happen, and for Doan to make his decision. Semin is in no rush to sign.

The lack of offers semins received so far may mean he may have to take what he can get.

EDIT: nless he wants to flee to the KHL, in which case good riddance
- david22

i'd hate to see semin go to the KHL. as enigmatic as he is, he is one of the most skilled players in the NHL and if he gets his attitude right, he can dominate games consistently. i never wanna see talent leave the NHL.

That's a good point. Ovie's ES scoring decreased 45.2% from 2009-2010 to last year which is nearly twice as much as Semin. If we consider 2009-2010 as an outlier since the Caps scored nearly 4 goals a game and look at the changes from 2010-2011 to 2011-2012 we see Ovie's ES scoring rate drop 27% while Semin's remains relatively static (actually increasing from 2.32 pts/60 to 2.35 pts/60).

There are a lot of factors that have to be considered when analyzing stats. I simply did a rough look at Semin's advanced metrics and scoring rates and noticed the decrease. Even though his isn't as bad as Ovie's, it still isn't reassuring to see his scoring rates drop while facing weaker competition.

At the end of the day, if all other potential solutions are off the table I see no reason not to take a gamble on Semin. I'd be willing to take that chance short-term.
- gkmkiller

But is the drop because he played with different players or he wasn't playing as well as before?

But is the drop because he played with different players or he wasn't playing as well as before?
- hockeypunk36

First it was the switch to a defensive system with Boudreau, naturally #'s will decline a bit.
Now he did refine his overall game with Hunter, and declined a bit more.

But its not for lack of effort or loss of skill. When you start playing a different style than youre used to these things happen. Youre not going to see Semin being a hanger and irresponsible in his own zone much anymore. He was a team player last year. Also need to keep in mind, the only play making center the Caps have is Backstrom and even he hasnt been all that great.

First it was the switch to a defensive system with Boudreau, naturally #'s will decline a bit.
Now he did refine his overall game with Hunter, and declined a bit more.

But its not for lack of effort or loss of skill. When you start playing a different style than youre used to these things happen. Youre not going to see Semin being a hanger and irresponsible in his own zone much anymore. He was a team player last year. Also need to keep in mind, the only play making center the Caps have is Backstrom and even he hasnt been all that great.
- NYRPowerPlay

So he's like Gaborik who can't really create offense on his own and needs someone to give him the puck. There were times during our series with them I saw him backchecking and other things like that. I wouldn't mind him on a deal like Glen suggested, 2-yeat $5m AAV. We have Richards, Step, and maybe even Arty who can give him the puck.

So he's like Gaborik who can't really create offense on his own and needs someone to give him the puck. There were times during our series with them I saw him backchecking and other things like that. I wouldn't mind him on deal like Glen suggested, 2-yeat $5m AAV. We have Richards, Step, and maybe even Arty who can give him the puck.
- hockeypunk36

Not a chance he signs for 5m AAV.

However, he is a bit better than Gaborik as far as creating. Not so much for himself, hes kind of like Ovi in that respect in that he will just rip shots (with more confidence than Gaborik) but he can give a nice pass.